{"id":297998,"date":"2022-04-27T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-04-27T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\/spring-2022-prices-and-rates-on-the-rise-economist-joaquin-kritz-lara-paints-the-picture\/"},"modified":"2022-12-21T20:07:47","modified_gmt":"2022-12-21T20:07:47","slug":"spring-2022-prices-and-rates-on-the-rise-economist-joaquin-kritz-lara-paints-the-picture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\/en\/spring-2022-prices-and-rates-on-the-rise-economist-joaquin-kritz-lara-paints-the-picture\/","title":{"rendered":"Spring 2022: Prices and rates on the rise\u2026 Economist Joaquin Kritz-Lara paints the picture!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Joaquin is the Chief Economist &amp; Strategist at Numera Analytics, an economics research consultancy. Numera offers macro research and strategy services to institutional investors and multinationals.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For people like me, the last two years have been challenging and exciting, as the world economy faced an unprecedented number of shocks.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The latest in this long list of major macro surprises is the Russia-Ukraine war, which is simultaneously reducing global growth prospects while fueling inflation.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Inflation in Canada is running at a 3-decade high of 6.7%, and could rise further during the spring as firms pass-on higher wage, energy and materials costs onto consumers (think of those expensive home renos!).&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One worrying trend for policymakers in Ottawa is that most people expect high inflation to last.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Survey data, for instance, reveals that small and medium businesses believe inflation will remain above 5% one year from now.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Why does this matter?&nbsp;<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If businesses expect high inflation, they may raise prices aggressively to shield themselves from profit losses between price adjustment periods (which for many services occur only once per year).&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This then creates a \u2018self-fulfilling prophecy\u2019, and breaking this cycle, unfortunately for homebuyers, typically calls for interest rate hikes. Doing so is tricky however, since raising rates too fast can slow the economy.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For the Bank of Canada (BoC), the incentive to hike is stronger than elsewhere, since Canada is less vulnerable to high oil prices when compared to energy importers like Europe.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In addition, employment levels in Canada have fully recovered (having returned to their pre-COVID trends), reducing the risk of cutting the recovery short.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Both factors increase the likelihood of a cycle of rapid hikes, as evidenced by the BoC\u2019s decision to lift policy rates by 0.5% a few weeks ago.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One reasonable scenario, for planning purposes, is for a policy rate of 2.5% by year-end, which should translate into a prime rate of 4.5%.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This would be the highest reached by such rates since the 2008\/09 financial crisis, a period characterized by exceptionally favourable financing conditions.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Higher prime rates could lower housing demand, as this is the rate used by banks to set the rates on fixed and variable mortgages.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>What does this mean for the housing market?&nbsp;<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Low inventories and favourable demographics should continue supporting house prices in large metropolitan areas. As a homebuyer, this means you should prepare for a period of rising financing costs, and thus, my recommendation, in this environment, is to discuss your mortgage strategy (including the repayment structure) early on with your investment advisor.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"683\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Joaquim-Economiste-1-683x1024.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-324801\" srcset=\"https:\/\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Joaquim-Economiste-1-683x1024.jpeg 683w, https:\/\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Joaquim-Economiste-1-200x300.jpeg 200w, https:\/\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Joaquim-Economiste-1-768x1152.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Joaquim-Economiste-1-1024x1536.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Joaquim-Economiste-1-1365x2048.jpeg 1365w, https:\/\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Joaquim-Economiste-1-16x24.jpeg 16w, https:\/\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Joaquim-Economiste-1-24x36.jpeg 24w, https:\/\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Joaquim-Economiste-1-32x48.jpeg 32w, https:\/\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Joaquim-Economiste-1-scaled.jpeg 1707w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 683px) 100vw, 683px\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Joaquin is the Chief Economist &amp; Strategist at Numera Analytics, an economics research consultancy. Numera offers macro research and strategy services to institutional investors and multinationals. &nbsp; For people like me, the last two years have been challenging and exciting, as the world economy faced an unprecedented number of shocks.&nbsp; The latest in this long [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":298428,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[84],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-297998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-real-estate-and-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Spring 2022: Prices and rates on the rise\u2026 Economist Joaquin Kritz-Lara paints the picture! - \u00c9quipe Mark-Andr\u00e9 Martel<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Spring 2022: Prices and rates on the rise\u2026 Economist Joaquin Kritz-Lara paints the picture! - \u00c9quipe Mark-Andr\u00e9 Martel\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Joaquin is the Chief Economist &amp; Strategist at Numera Analytics, an economics research consultancy. Numera offers macro research and strategy services to institutional investors and multinationals. &nbsp; For people like me, the last two years have been challenging and exciting, as the world economy faced an unprecedented number of shocks.&nbsp; The latest in this long [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\/en\/spring-2022-prices-and-rates-on-the-rise-economist-joaquin-kritz-lara-paints-the-picture\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"\u00c9quipe Mark-Andr\u00e9 Martel\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-04-27T00:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-12-21T20:07:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/Joaquim-Economiste-1-200x300-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"300\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"info@sh1ftdigital.com\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"info@sh1ftdigital.com\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\\\/en\\\/spring-2022-prices-and-rates-on-the-rise-economist-joaquin-kritz-lara-paints-the-picture\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\\\/en\\\/spring-2022-prices-and-rates-on-the-rise-economist-joaquin-kritz-lara-paints-the-picture\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"info@sh1ftdigital.com\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/7f820e8b50a6272309378f1b4ab3dac2\"},\"headline\":\"Spring 2022: Prices and rates on the rise\u2026 Economist Joaquin Kritz-Lara paints the picture!\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-04-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-12-21T20:07:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\\\/en\\\/spring-2022-prices-and-rates-on-the-rise-economist-joaquin-kritz-lara-paints-the-picture\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":443,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\\\/en\\\/spring-2022-prices-and-rates-on-the-rise-economist-joaquin-kritz-lara-paints-the-picture\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/04\\\/Joaquim-Economiste-1-200x300-1.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Real Estate &amp; News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\\\/en\\\/spring-2022-prices-and-rates-on-the-rise-economist-joaquin-kritz-lara-paints-the-picture\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/marc-andre-martel-staging.jurassicodes.com\\\/en\\\/spring-2022-prices-and-rates-on-the-rise-economist-joaquin-kritz-lara-paints-the-picture\\\/\",\"name\":\"Spring 2022: Prices and rates on the rise\u2026 Economist Joaquin Kritz-Lara paints the picture! 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