RECAP 2025
Quebec Real Estate vs. the Rest of Canada: A Growing Divide
The latest numbers from our Quebec real estate board have just been released, and one thing is certain: not all provinces experienced the same version of 2025 when it comes to real estate performance. In fact, the divergence between provinces is striking.
On one end of the spectrum, Quebec saw a slight tightening of supply combined with an increase in demand (sales), resulting in an average median price increase of over 8% across the province. On the other end, British Columbia and Ontario experienced a sharp increase in supply alongside a decrease in demand, leading to declines in median prices of approximately –3% and –4% respectively.
Why such a disparity in market dynamics?
Ontario and British Columbia have historically benefited from strong market momentum driven by immigration, foreign buyer speculation, and a higher concentration of industries that are now being impacted by tariffs and shifting government policies. As these factors cool down, demand has softened while inventory has surged.
Quebec, on the other hand, has remained more insulated. Demand here is rooted in more stable and traditional market forces: comparatively affordable pricing, strong local employment, and—most importantly—a continued willingness and confidence from local buyers to become homeowners.
FORECAST FOR 2026
Province of Quebec
For 2026, we expect a stabilization of activity, with an overall 2% decrease in transactions compared to 2025. That said, transaction volumes are still forecasted to remain above those seen in 2024, 2023, and 2022, and above the 10-year average.
Prices, meanwhile, are expected to continue climbing, particularly for single-family homes and condos, with an estimated +8% increase in median prices province-wide.
Montreal
Montreal is expected to follow a similar trend, albeit more conservatively:
- –3% in transaction volume
- +4% increase in median prices for single-family homes
- 0% price variation for condos
Rental Market Outlook
Another notable forecast for 2026 concerns the rental market. Rental prices are expected to continue declining, both provincially and in Montreal, driven by:
- Increased supply from new development projects
- A slowdown in immigration levels across the province
My Take
The market outperformed expectations in 2025, and while forecasts for 2026 suggest a flatter year, that is not what I’m seeing on the ground so far.
In just the first three weeks of the year, my team and I have already experienced multiple bidding scenarios, with several listings receiving four or more offers and selling well over asking—sometimes by more than $100,000.
The question remains: is this simply a dynamic start to the year, or an early sign of what’s to come?