As we head into October, and look back on September, the real estate market continues to follow the same trajectory we’ve seen throughout 2025. Sales volumes remain strong, with transactions up 10% in Montréal, and 11% across Quebec, when compared to the same period last year. Median prices are also higher year over year, and average days-on-market continues to decline across all property types.
At first glance it seems like more of the same; but, a closer look at the numbers reveals two standout developments:
The first trend is the resurgence in the plex market. In September, plex sales surged by 33% in Montréal, and 22% across our province. These are significant increases; the kind of movement we rarely see from one year to the next. They suggest that investor interest in income-generating properties is gaining momentum.
The second trend is more subtle, but perhaps more telling. The condo market is starting to show signs of slowing. While the overall narrative has been one of rising prices, and faster sales, the condo segment is starting to diverge from that trend. In Montréal condo sales in September actually declined by 2%, compared to the same month last year. Across Québec the increase was marginal. An increase of just 1% makes condos the weakest-performing segment.
Inventory levels paint an even clearer picture: As of last month active condo listings in Montréal were up 18%, year-over-year. Across the province, inventory rose by 11%. In both of these cases, condos are now the segment with the fastest-growing supply on the market.
There is currently a 9.8-month supply of condos in Montréal. This means that if no new listings were added, it would take nearly 10 months to sell through current inventory, at the present pace. This puts the market on the brink of a shift toward buyers. A buyers’ market would be a significant departure from the trends we’ve seen since the beginning of this year.
This softening could be the show of an early sign of broader economic pressures beginning; particularly as unemployment has been rising in many regions of Québec. The effects of Tariffs are still taking place. Additionally, growing concern regarding the new regulations surrounding the management of co-ownerships, as well as impending special assessments, could be turning buyers away condos as a property class.
While the detached home and plex markets continue to perform well, the condo segment may be the first to reflect changing consumer confidence and affordability concerns. If inventory continues to build, and if that inventory crosses the 10-month threshold, we could see downward pressure on prices, beginning as early as next year.
Adding to the aforementioned uncertainty: Two upcoming Bank of Canada rate announcements; One announcement just took place on October 29, and the next one is scheduled for December 10, 2025. Either has the potential to introduce market momentum, enough to reinforce, or reverse, the emerging trends we’ve been describing.
We’ll be watching closely, but it’s clear that while most sectors of the market are still accelerating, condos are beginning to tap the brakes: Little red warning lights we’re watching for you.